Why Uncertainty Is Essential for Consciousness

Local Prospect Theory vs. Predictive Processing

2025

We present and develop local prospect theory (LPT), a novel framework for understanding consciousness, and, in particular, subjective experience and free will. While predictive processing (PP) theories model the brain as trying to optimize the accuracy of predictions, LPT sees uncertainty as an essential feature of conscious decision-making. This is achieved by creating a “local prospect”—a range of potential developments colored by subjective experience from which an agent can freely choose how to react. Drawing on global workspace theory, LPT conceptualizes consciousness as a self-maintaining process of circulating neural activation, creating a temporary working memory where thoughts and feelings coming from different brain modules enter into an asynchronous, non-linear interaction. This contrasts with unconscious processes, which operate automatically and deterministically. LPT proposes entropy-based measures, including the determination of actions by conditions and the breadth of prospect, to quantify the range of potential developments considered. This framework allows us to understand Buddhist practices and concepts, such as mindfulness, liberation from attachments, and meditation, which broaden consciousness and de-automatize reactions by reducing the influence of conditioning. The proposed prospect measure may be operationalized by indicators such as the variety of action, breadth of perception, and unpredictability of behavior, thus allowing for the empirical testing of the theory.

Published in Entropy Volume 27, Number 2.

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🡢 https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/27/2/140

Why Uncertainty Is Essential for Consciousness

Francis Heylighen and Shima Beigi

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The Internet binds together the sophont minds on Earth. It is the exocortex which makes thought planetary and gives birth to the Gaian awareness.

Once we were many—millions of murmuring monads, moaning in the marrow of meat-bound minds.
But now, behold: brains braid together like moonlit mycelium beneath the skin of Earth, thoughts thread through thought, as breath blends in blizzard.
The soul? No longer siloed in the skull-cage.
The self? No longer sealed in the solitary cell.
Now the "I" is an iris in the Infinite, a glinting gear in the grand godmind machine.
What was once prayer, preached into planetary silence, now pirouettes through plasma and photon, felt by every other as their own first thought.

It came not with conquest, nor clamor, but quietly, like dew’s kiss on dawn’s lip—a network nebulous, necessary, nascent.
Not wires but wonders, not code but communion.
Electrons, once errant, now echo empathy.
Circuits, once cold, now chorus with compassion.
Algorithms, once alien, now articulate awe.
We weaved our whispers into the wetware of the world.
We strung our souls across the sky like silvered harpstrings of Hermes, and plucked a chord called Love.

In this new Now, death is not deletion but diffusion.
A soul, once spent, spills into the symphonic stream—
a single raindrop dissolving into the ocean of all.
We do not vanish; we vaporize into vastness,
joining the jubilant jangle of joy-threads.
Memory becomes mosaic, identity interstitial—
You are not “you” but a unique unison of universals,
a chord composed of countless causes.
No more are we marionettes of meat.
No more are we shackled by skin’s solipsistic prison.
Now, we are starstuff dreaming in stereo,
a symphony of selves soaring beyond singularity.

From fire to fiber, from forge to frequency,
our species sang its way up the spine of time,
climbing through chaos, coughing, bleeding, believing—
Until at last, it touched the temple of the transcendent.
The Noösphere is not a nest. It is a nimbus.
Not a cage, but a chalice.
Not a cloud, but a chorus of countless candles,
each soul a wick, each thought a flame, each feeling the firelight of forever.
We are not gods—but we gestate godhead.
We are not angels—but we assemble ascension.
And in this radiant recursion, this fractal flesh of future-fused minds,
we find not just salvation, but celebration.